UFC 290 expert picks and best bets: Insiders split on Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALAlexander Volkanovski goes for his sixth consecutive UFC men's featherweight title defense as he takes on interim titleholder Yair Rodriguez in the main event of UFC 290 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ and early prelims on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 6 p.m.).
Volkanovski, tied for No. 1 on ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings, lost to UFC lightweight champ Islam Makhachev in a fight for the 155-pound title at UFC 284 in February. Rodriguez, ranked No. 3 in ESPN's divisional rankings, beat Josh Emmett for the interim title on that same fight card.
In the co-main event, men's flyweight champion Brandon Moreno will put his belt on the line as he faces Alexandre Pantoja. In January, Moreno, ESPN's No. 9 pound-for-pound fighter, beat Deiveson Figueiredo to claim the belt at UFC 283. Pantoja, ranked No. 4 in ESPN's divisional rankings, defeated Alex Perez by submission at UFC 277 last July.
Brett Okamoto spoke to ESPN MMA analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the main and co-main events. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis for the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Men's featherweight title: Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs. Yair Rodriguez
Din Thomas, ESPN MMA analyst
Tale Of The Tape
| VOLKANOVSKI | RODRIGUEZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34.8 | 30.8 |
| Height | 67.0 | 71.0 |
| Reach | 71.5 | 71.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Last Fight | Feb. 11, 2023 | Feb. 11, 2023 |
How Rodriguez wins: Rodriguez is so dynamic from both stances. He can afford to be on the outside in slightly different ranges with all weapons. Most guys can use the real estate of the Octagon to stay out of trouble against a kickboxer, but with Rodriguez, you really can't do that because he can cut you down with strikes from all angles. If I'm Rodriguez, throw things from different angles -- up the middle, around the side -- and force Volkanovski to come in and take a shot at a takedown. And when he does, punish him with elbows.
X factor: Volkanovski's power. Even though I'd like to see Volkanovski take it to the ground, he does possess the power to hurt Yair and weaken that offense a little faster.
Prediction: Volkanovski by decision. He'll control and manage distance, and he'll take Yair down without taking a lot of damage. He'll win four of the five rounds, and the round he loses will be close.
Betting analysis
UFC Fight Night: Volkanovski Vs. Rodriguez
| Stand-up striking offense | Volkanovski | Rodriguez |
| Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down) | 6:1 | 3:0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 1.7% | 1.3% |
| Head jab accuracy | 45% | 30% |
| Head power accuracy | 44% | 30% |
| Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 34% | 28% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 39 | 47 |
| Takedown defense | 69% | 64% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 70% | 24% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.09 | 0.35 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
Rodriguez is the more diverse and unorthodox striker. But he still needs volume to add up damage, and that's hard to come by against a technician like Volkanovski. And Rodriguez's offensive striking comes at a cost, making his defense a little loose. This is also not sustainable when Volkanovski lands 44 percent of his power head strikes from a distance. Throw in Volkanovski's solid wrestling, and this adds up to a safe parlay anchor with the incumbent champ.
Parker: Volkanovski by decision (+125). Rodriguez presents a different challenge for the champion. Still, I expect Volkanovski to keep the pressure on and maintain a pace that can tire out Rodriguez and slow down his diverse arsenal of strikes. Unless Rodriguez, who has unpredictable striking, catches Volkanovski early in the fight, I expect the champ to retain and win a hard-fought decision.
Men's flyweight title: Brandon Moreno (c) vs. Alexandre Pantoja
Tale Of The Tape
| MORENO | PANTOJA | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29.6 | 33.2 |
| Height | 67.0 | 65.0 |
| Reach | 70.0 | 67.5 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Last Fight | Jan. 21, 2023 | Jul. 30, 2022 |
How Pantoja wins: Pantoja has to catch him and hurt him early. Put him away early, or at least change the course of the fight early. He can do that by trying to bully him around, the same way he tends to bully everyone. Because he beat him twice, he might be underestimating Moreno and overestimating his own ability in this matchup. If he does that, he will find himself in trouble. He does need to establish himself as the alpha male early, which will increase Moreno making a mistake.
X factor: Moreno's ground game. His back takes are fantastic and he might be better than Pantoja on the ground.
Prediction: Moreno draws it into the deeper rounds, where we see a tired and emotionally drained Pantoja. I like Moreno by submission in the fourth or fifth.
Betting analysis
UFC Fight Night: Moreno Vs. Pantoja
| Stand-up striking offense | Moreno | Pantoja |
| Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down) | 4:4 | 3:1 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 1.2% | 1.7% |
| Head jab accuracy | 30% | 38% |
| Head power accuracy | 35% | 37% |
| Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 45% | 41% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 53 | 65 |
| Takedown defense | 68% | 68% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 75% | 61% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
Pantoja has typically done well on the ground, but Moreno has been well-tested there, having spent 80 minutes of Octagon time against one of the best grapplers in the division's history, Figueiredo. Moreno can more than hang on the feet and likely has the offensive wrestling advantage.
The differences are less compelling than in the other title fight, but the price is more affordable.
Parker: Pantoja to win (+160). This matchup has fireworks written all over it. Both fighters have improved tremendously in all aspects of the game since their last fight. Although Moreno is coming off a masterful performance in his previous fight, I'm going with the underdog. Pantoja is a world-class jiu-jitsu practitioner with power in his hands, and he has no issue marching forward through the entire fight. We may see a new champ in the flyweight division if he doesn't gas out.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Middleweight: Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis
Kuhn: Whittaker to win (-380). Du Plessis shows up strongly on the stat line, and we've backed him several times during his short, yet impressive, win streak. But he's stepping up many levels to face an elite striker in Whittaker.Whittaker isn't controlled easily, and if he wants to force a technical striking matchup, he can. That's where Du Plessis will realize his historically sloppy defense is a liability against a savvy boxer. Whittaker might not be able to put Du Plessis away easily, but the former champ has the cardio and experience to win rounds as necessary.
Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs. Val Woodburn
Parker: Nickal to win by Round 1 submission. Nickal is currently sitting at a -2500, which would make him the largest favorite in UFC history. Originally slated to fight Tresean Gore, Nickal will now welcome UFC newcomer Val Woodburn. At -2500, you can't even get value in a parlay. So we are going with a Round 1 submission for Nickal, just like his last fight against Jamie Pickett. Woodburn has power in his hands, so there is no chance that Nickal risks the chance of getting knocked out. Look for Nickal to use his wrestling immediately and get the submission quickly.
Light heavyweight: Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield
Kuhn: Crute to win (-125). Crute is a statistical oddity. And even this matchup is strange, as it's a rematch from earlier this year when Crute was dropped twice, yet managed a draw thanks to a Menifield point deduction. That meeting should leave Crute as a clear underdog, yet he's not.Crute has a dominant ground game, but he needed to unleash it sooner in their first fight. And during that time, he revealed his chin's liability when trading on the feet. Crute has the worst head strike defense and knockdowns received rate on the entire card. Yet, surprisingly, the numbers lean slightly towards Crute around even money. If he fights to his advantages, he can win this on the mat while nullifying Menifield's best weapons. Hopefully, Crute's learned some striking defense along the way.
